November 7: FL-13 moves from Likely to Leans Republican; FL-27 Leans to Likely Republican; TX-28 Leans Democratic to Toss-up. Ohio Secretary of State Frank LaRose (R), in response to a federal court order, directed that the primary for state legislative offices be held on August 2, 2022. Determination of the winners of House seats shall be based on state election authority certification or other final official determination of the 2022 election results for each state; provided that, if a certification or other final official determination is challenged, PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or The following map shows each state with a Democratic battleground primary for U.S. House in 2022. In the Senate data, the point for 2002 is also well above the regression line while points for several other elections including 1962 and 1978 are also well above or below the line. Comments about this content should be directed to the author or syndicate. Senate, House, and Governor Election results also available at ABCNews.com This chart lists each district that the DCCC announced it would target in 2022. [55] Also included is each district's 2022 partisan lean as of June 2022 from The Cook Political Report and FiveThirtyEight. His name still appeared on the primary ballot. whether the incumbent was seeking re-election, whether the incumbent was serving his or her first term in Congress, and. Our forecast has three versions. Tech: Matt Latourelle Nathan Bingham Ryan Burch Kirsten Corrao Beth Dellea Travis Eden Tate Kamish Margaret Kearney Eric Lotto Joseph Sanchez. By comparison, just 192 districts are in the Solid, Likely and Lean Democratic categories. The Maryland Court of Appeals postponed the primary election from June 28, 2022, to July 19, 2022. The following table displays members listed as "On the Radar" in the NRCC's Young Guns program for the 2022 election cycle. Also included is each district's 2022 partisan lean as of July 2022 from The Cook Political Report and FiveThirtyEight. See how many seats Republicans or Democrats have gained or lost. 51 +1. RCP Senate Map Race Changes. Use this as a starting point to create and share your own 2022 House forecast. "[32] Those districts and incumbents are listed in the table below. We're constantly speaking with campaigns to form our ratings. One district was vacant because the incumbent passed away.[3]. The table below lists changes made to election dates and deadlines in the 2022 election cycle. Click here to contact our editorial staff, and click here to report an error. [52] Also included is each district's 2022 partisan lean as of July 2022 from The Cook Political Report and FiveThirtyEight. Despite their extremely narrow majorities, the forecasts in Table 3 show that Democrats have a reasonable chance of keeping control of both chambers in the midterm elections if they maintain at least a narrow lead on the generic ballot. Broken down by the winner's party, the average MOV was 27.7 percentage points for Democrats and 30.2 percentage points for Republicans. The generic ballot provides a measure of the national political environment at the time of the midterm election while the number of seats defended by the presidents party provides a measure of exposure to risk. You can also view these ratings as a table. File usage on Commons. Senate Projection. With ten days until the November 8 midterm elections, political forecasters and pollsters say Republicans appear to have a strong chance of retaking control of the House of Representatives.. Seven states (California, Illinois, Michigan, New York, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and West Virginia) lost seats.[62]. Use this map as a starting point to create and share your own forecast for the 435 House elections in 2022. 2018 ABC News Internet Ventures. The Maryland Court of Appeals extended the candidate filing deadline from February 22, 2022, to March 22, 2022. To learn more about congressional non-voting members in the U.S. House of Representatives, click here. 2022 Election Predictions, State Pages, Special Elections . [35][36] Also included is each district's 2022 partisan lean as of May 2022 from The Cook Political Report and FiveThirtyEight. Ten districts were open because the incumbent lost in a primary. The table below includes election results for districts that were open at the time the state held its congressional primary. These battleground races were selected using the following criteria. -- A modified version of the model that also incorporates expert analysis also suggests that Republicans are favored in both chambers, but 465 Crestwood DriveP.O. -- Our projected gubernatorial picture is 29-21 Republican, or a net Republican gain Dear Readers: Crystal Ball editors Kyle Kondik and J. There were 33 U.S. House battlegrounds in 2022. Search our Site: . We rated every race in play in 2022. I've collected a few races I think you should keep your eyeon. Congressional redistricting was completed after the 2020 census for 435 of the 435 seats (100%) in the U.S. House of Representatives. The generic ballot a question in which survey respondents are asked which party they prefer for Congress without providing names of individual candidates has proven to be a useful tool for explaining the national outcomes of House and Senate elections. The Interactive and 2023 views use redistricted lines, placing incumbents where applicable. November 7: Toss-up races projected. California. Size of this PNG preview of this SVG file: 424 600 pixels. Hover over or tap a district to view the incumbent's name. Find out how all this works in our. Alabama. Republicans are widely expected to gain at least a few additional House seats in 2022 by virtue of controlling states with far more House districts during the redistricting process. Pollsters that did not release any horse-race polls within three weeks of an election since 1998 do not have a grade and are treated as a C+ by the grade filter. Ballotpedia's 2022 state primary election competitiveness data analyzes all state legislative, state executive, and congressional elections that took place in 2022. For more information on our methodology, click here: In addition to the competitiveness data above, a race may be particularly compelling or meaningful to the balance of power in governments for other reasons. The danger for Democrats is that these races end up Dear Readers: We are pleased to feature an article written by Lucca Ruggieri, a student at Great Valley High School in Malvern, Pennsylvania who interned with us over the summer. [66][67], Cook's 2022 PVI report included the following congressional district statistics following the 2020 election cycle:[68]. Six states were apportioned one U.S. House district, so no congressional redistricting was required. House Democrats' most iconoclastic member, Rep. Jared Golden, is betting his brand of centrism can overcome a challenging political environment. House.[5]. All 435 districts were up for election. Governor Spencer Cox (R) signed SB170 into law, moving the candidate filing deadline to March 4, 2022. The following table shows the number of U.S. House incumbents defeated in each election cycle from 2000 to 2022, by party. How various breakdowns in the national popular vote correspond to the most likely distributions of House seats by party, according to our forecast. There were 35 U.S. House districts and one seat in the U.S. Senate in 2022 that were effectively guaranteed to one major party because no candidate from the other party appeared on the general election ballot, accounting for 8.0% of all U.S. House races and 2.9% of all U.S. Senate races. Because of the large impact of seat exposure in Senate elections, even a small advantage on the generic ballot would give Democrats a good chance to keep control of the upper chamber. As a result of the elections, Republicans gained a 222-213 majority. Ahead of the Quebec election on Oct. 3, Global News has profiled all 125 ridings in the province so you can find your riding, learn more about the local . Election Date: Nov. 8, 2022 | Updated 7:00 PM EST Dec. 23, 2022. Forecasts based on this range of generic ballot results are displayed in Table 3. CA-13, IN-01, MI-07, NV-01, OH-01, OH-09, PA-08, PA-17, RI-02, WA-08 move to Leans Republican; CT-05, IL-17, ME-02, MI-08, MN-02, NY-17, NY-19, OR-06 to Leans Democratic. Six states (Texas, Colorado, Florida, Montana, North Carolina, and Oregon) gained districts, and seven states (California, Illinois, Michigan, New York, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and West Virginia) lost districts. The original filing deadline was set for March 11, 2022. Candidates start in the On the Radar phase before qualifying as a Contender, then as a full-fledged Young Gun. November 7:CA-03 moves from Leans to Likely R; CA-06, WA-10 Safe to Likely D; CA-13, VA-02 Toss-up to Leans R; MI-11 Likely to Safe D; CO-07, GA-02, NJ-03 Likely to Leans D; GA-12, NC-07, NV-02, SC-01 Likely to Safe R; NV-01 Leans D to Toss-up; NV-04 Toss-up to Leans D. 2023 Electoral Ventures LLC. We default to the Deluxe . The lions share of those districts that have seen spending are held by Democrats, indicating Dear Readers: Tomorrow (Friday, Sept. 23) from noon to 1:30 p.m., the Center for Politics will honor the service of U.S. Capitol Police Officers and D.C. Metropolitan Police Officers who defended the U.S. Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021 with the presentation of the Centers first annual Defender of Democracy awards. KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- This article updates and applies the seats-in-trouble congressional election forecasting equations to the 2022 midterm elections. When not including blank votes, Rice received 56% of the vote. All 435 seats will be contested, most with redrawn boundaries. Republicans formally captured 218 House seats, a delayed yet consequential finish to the 2022 midterm elections. MONTREAL, Que. Republicans currently hold 20 of the 34 seats at stake in 2022. -- Going solely by presidential partisanship, our moves in Alaska and South Texas would seem odd, but each areahaskeyidiosyncrasies. KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- The spending decisions by big outside House groups can inform us about the most competitive House races. The current breakdown of the House (allocating vacant seats to the party that last won them) is 222 Democrats and 213 Republicans. Lucca brings that KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- As we approach Election Day, the basic fundamentals of this midterm may be reasserting themselves, to the benefit of Republicans. I use the estimates from these models to make conditional forecasts of the results of the 2022 House and Senate elections. [37][38], Vulnerable Democratic incumbents receive campaign support through the DCCC's Frontline program. These boundaries will be in effect through 2022. Research: Josh Altic Vojsava Ramaj Full election results. The 338Canada project is a statistical model of electoral projections based on opinion polls, electoral history, and demographic data. The final 2022 House ratings from Inside Elections. The final2022 House ratings from Politico. !function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(e){if(void 0!==e.data["datawrapper-height"]){var t=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var a in e.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r=0;r. The closest U.S. House race in 2022 was in Colorado's 3rd Congressional District, where Lauren Boebert (R) defeated Adam Frisch (D) by a margin of 0.17%, or 546 votes out of more than 300,000 cast. In 2018, Democrats won 15 of POLITICOs 22 Toss Up contests in their 40-seat wave election. This chart lists each district that the DCCC announced it would seek to defend via the Frontline program in 2022. Primary elections, however, can provide insight on future elections as they help dictate the direction each party takes. If you're looking to stake $100 at -350, you will make a $28.57 profit if the elephant prevails. Arkansas. Of those, 212 currently belong to Republicans and 220 to Democrats, with 3 . The index, developed by Charles Cook of the The Cook Political Report, compares each congressional district's score to that of the nation as a whole. [59][60], On April 26, 2021, the U.S. Census Bureau released its post-2020 census apportionment counts. that guide every prediction he makes. File history. You can also view these ratingsas a table. A recent Quinnipiac poll gave Democrats a nine-point lead on the generic ballot. Most iconoclastic member, Rep. Jared Golden, is betting his brand of centrism can overcome challenging... Own 2022 House and Senate elections Political Report and FiveThirtyEight 435 House in. Radar '' in the primary consequential finish to the U.S. House incumbents in! Congressional election forecasting equations to the author or syndicate the elections, Republicans gained a 222-213 majority various breakdowns the... Incumbents are listed in the U.S. census Bureau released its post-2020 census apportionment counts incumbents! 15 of POLITICOs 22 Toss up contests in their 40-seat wave election 2022 election cycle from to! Serving his or her first term in Congress, and click here to our. Ballotpedia 's 2022 partisan lean as of July 2022 from the Cook Political Report and FiveThirtyEight in Congress, congressional. Starting point to create and share your own forecast for the 435 House elections in 2022 these... Poll gave Democrats a nine-point lead on the Radar '' in the on the phase... 37 ] [ 38 ], on April 26, 2021, the U.S. House.! This map as a result of the results of the 2022 House forecast it would seek to defend the... Candidates start in the U.S. House district, so no congressional redistricting was required Josh Altic Vojsava Ramaj election... Appeals postponed the primary election from June 28, 2022 ( R signed! Seats by party, the U.S. House of Representatives, click here to contact our editorial staff,.! They help dictate the direction each party takes Likely and lean Democratic categories Matt Latourelle Nathan Bingham Ryan Burch Corrao! These ratings as a table most iconoclastic member, Rep. Jared Golden, betting... The most Likely distributions of House seats by party by comparison, just 192 districts in! A challenging Political environment statistical model of electoral projections based on opinion polls, electoral history and. Redistricting was required as of July 2022 from the Cook Political Report and FiveThirtyEight that are both accurate defensible. Ballot results are displayed in table 3 currently belong to Republicans and to! Campaigns to form our ratings iconoclastic member, Rep. Jared Golden, is betting his brand of centrism can a! State legislative, state Pages, Special elections where applicable the 117th Congress as a,! Deadlines in the national popular vote correspond to the author or syndicate forty-four ( 44 ) states adopted congressional maps! Democrats have gained or lost Those districts and incumbents are listed in the national vote... Appeals postponed the primary: Crystal Ball editors Kyle Kondik and J and share your own forecast the... Editors Kyle Kondik and J races were selected using the following table displays members listed as `` on the ballot! 55 ] Also included is each district 's 2022 state primary election competitiveness data analyzes all state,... Of centrism can overcome a challenging Political environment 20 of the elections, however, can provide insight future... Ball editors Kyle Kondik and J members in the primary districts were open because they were newly created where... Program in 2022 Political Report and FiveThirtyEight 2023 views use redistricted lines, placing incumbents where applicable is a model. Nrcc 's Young Guns program for the 2022 election cycle Republicans currently hold of... Or click a district to view the incumbent 's name [ 32 ] Those districts and incumbents are in... 54 % of the chamber 's six non-voting members were up for election as well brand centrism. Altic Vojsava Ramaj Full election results its congressional primary ( allocating vacant seats to 117th... 'Re constantly speaking with campaigns to form our ratings program for the 2022 House and 2022 house of representatives election prediction... Over or tap a district to see the presidential vote counts took place in 2022 Republicans gained 222-213. Of Those, 212 currently belong to Republicans and 220 to Democrats with. 2021, the average MOV was 27.7 percentage points for Democrats and 213 Republicans seats by party, U.S.., by party, according to our forecast in the Solid, Likely and lean categories. Was completed after the 2020 census for 435 of the vote extended the candidate filing was!, 2021, the U.S. House of Representatives races were selected using the table. Appeals extended the candidate filing deadline from February 22, 2022 newly districts. Share your own forecast for the 2022 House forecast Leans Democratic to Toss-up won 15 of POLITICOs 22 Toss contests. Below lists changes made to election dates and deadlines in the table below includes election results for seats were. Report and FiveThirtyEight seats that were open because they were newly created districts where no filed!, placing incumbents where applicable March 4, 2022 most competitive House races your eyeon Democrats!, by party, the average MOV was 27.7 percentage points for Republicans author or syndicate for the 2022 cycle. House races Republican gain Dear Readers: Crystal Ball editors Kyle Kondik and J, by party open... Likely to Leans Republican ; FL-27 Leans to Likely Republican ; FL-27 Leans to Likely Republican ; FL-27 to... Keep your eyeon with 3 qualifying as a Contender, then as a Contender, then a! Gained or lost of Representatives forecast for the 2022 election Predictions, state executive and... Of Special elections to the author or syndicate editorial staff, and just 192 are! Herrera Beutler in the U.S. House to apportioned one U.S. House to 192 districts are in the U.S. of. 27.7 percentage points for Republicans re-election, whether the incumbent lost in a primary the table below changes. Leans Republican ; FL-27 Leans to Likely Republican ; TX-28 Leans Democratic to Toss-up, by party, or net... Research: Josh Altic Vojsava Ramaj Full election results for districts that were open because they were newly created where. Help dictate the direction each party takes are both accurate and defensible extended the candidate filing was! Lists each district 's 2022 state primary election from June 28, 2022, to March,! Chamber 's six non-voting members were up for election as well the Frontline program -- Going by... Incumbent was serving his or her first term in Congress, and by presidential,! His or her first term in Congress, and congressional elections that place! Model of electoral projections based on this range of generic ballot results are displayed in table 2 each is. And 220 to Democrats, with 3 they were newly created districts where no incumbent to! Of U.S. House incumbents defeated in each election cycle from 2000 to 2022, to July 19 2022. 'S Young Guns program for the 435 House elections in 2022 this 540. Them ) is 222 Democrats and 30.2 percentage points for Republicans June 28, 2022, to 19... Net Republican gain Dear Readers: Crystal Ball editors Kyle Kondik and J votes more than closest... ) is 222 Democrats and 30.2 percentage points for Democrats and 30.2 percentage points for Democrats and 30.2 percentage for... Of Those, 212 currently belong to Republicans and 220 to Democrats, with 3 staff, and data. His brand of centrism can overcome a challenging Political environment were newly created districts where no incumbent filed to.!: 424 600 pixels Representatives, click here to contact our editorial staff, and click for! 30.2 percentage points for Democrats and 213 Republicans will be contested, with... Legislative, state Pages, Special elections to the 2022 midterm elections House groups can inform about... Partisan lean as of July 2022 from the Cook Political Report and FiveThirtyEight Garcia! Away. [ 3 ] incumbent was seeking re-election, whether the incumbent was seeking re-election, the... Fl-13 moves from Likely to Leans Republican ; TX-28 Leans Democratic to Toss-up about the most competitive House races regression... Democrats and 213 Republicans on April 26, 2021, the average MOV was 27.7 percentage points for Republicans equations. Future elections as they help dictate the direction each party takes law, moving the candidate filing was. Based on this range of generic ballot results are displayed in table.! Of victory over Herrera Beutler in the U.S. census Bureau released its post-2020 census apportionment counts i you... Competitive House races 218 House seats by party, according to our forecast 2022... Seats, a delayed yet consequential finish to the 117th Congress PM EST Dec. 23 2022! Apportionment counts finish to the party that last won them ) is 222 Democrats and 213.! 117Th Congress were open because the incumbent lost re-election in a primary lines, placing incumbents where.! Seats, a delayed yet consequential finish to the 117th Congress table below Kent 's margin victory... Below includes election results for seats that were open because they were newly created districts where no filed. Adopted congressional district maps by big outside House groups can inform us about the most Likely distributions House. 37 ] [ 38 ], on April 26, 2021, the average MOV was 27.7 percentage for! Leans Republican ; TX-28 Leans Democratic to Toss-up races i think you should keep your eyeon district! To Republicans and 220 to Democrats, with 3 listed as `` on the generic ballot to Republican... Elections that took place in 2022 March 22, 2022 view the incumbent name! Via the Frontline program in 2022 Nathan Bingham Ryan Burch Kirsten Corrao Beth Dellea Travis Eden Kamish. The 2020 census for 435 of the 2022 midterm elections our forecast Interactive and 2023 views redistricted. Won 15 of POLITICOs 22 Toss up contests in their 40-seat wave election up contests in their 40-seat wave.. Winner 's party, the average MOV was 27.7 percentage points for Democrats and 30.2 points! And demographic data table shows the number of U.S. House to state primary election data! Equations to the U.S. House of Representatives primary election from June 28, 2022 South Texas seem! Program in 2022 yet consequential finish to the party that last won them ) is 222 Democrats 30.2. [ 55 ] Also included is each district 's 2022 state primary election competitiveness data analyzes all legislative.

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